The hottest SARS will reduce China's final consump

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SARS will reduce China's annual final consumption by 180billion yuan

overall understanding of the "SARS" event

the "SARS" event is a specific and special crisis, and its impact is comprehensive, not only limited to the impact on China's economy itself, but also on the world, but there are considerable differences in the degree of impact, mainly concentrated in specific regions and specific industries

the historical trend shows that with the progress of modern medical technology and the enhancement of people's awareness of self-protection, the loss of life caused by emergencies such as malignant epidemics is getting smaller and smaller, but the impact on the economy is often doubled. Especially in the credit developed society, the low short-term confidence will make the modern consumption based on credit and confidence become very fragile, which will magnify the economic losses

the short-term impact of SARS on China's economy will be considerable, while the impact of specific regions (Beijing, Guangdong, etc.) and specific industries (tourism, catering, etc.) will be greater

don't worry too much about the loss of economic growth. The key is to focus on the future and grow and mature in the crisis

After considering the above factors, we make the following analysis on the possible impact of SARS on China's economic growth:

internal factors - the impact on consumption will be significantly greater than the impact on investment

in today's highly mobile society, malignant infectious diseases will cause great panic to people's psychology, thus having a more obvious impact on spot consumption. It is estimated that the annual final consumption will increase by about 180billion yuan less. The specific estimates are as follows:

in the final consumption, the reduction of tourism consumption will be quite obvious, and the annual tourism revenue is expected to decrease by 140billion yuan. In 2002, the total revenue of China's tourism industry was 556.6 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 15% year-on-year. Among them, the tourism revenue of the three "golden weeks" is 86.5 billion yuan, accounting for 22.3% of the total revenue, while the revenue of the "May Day" golden week is 33.1 billion yuan. Affected by the "SARS" incident, the country cancelled the "May Day" holiday this year, and it is estimated that the tourism revenue during the "May Day" period will decrease by 70%, that is, 22billion yuan. Although the impact of the "SARS" event on the tourism industry lasts relatively long and has the deepest impact, we believe that this impact will decline, assuming a decline of 70% in the second quarter, 30% in the third quarter and 15% in the fourth quarter. The loss of tourism in the last three quarters is estimated to be about 153 billion yuan. After deducting the increase in the first quarter, it is estimated that the annual loss of tourism revenue will be about 140 billion yuan. It will promote the decline of GDP by 1.4 percentage points

it is estimated that the total retail sales of social consumer goods will increase by billion yuan less. Among them, it is mainly business and catering, and inspect whether the pressure spring of pressure stabilizing valve is reduced. It is estimated that the two industries will reduce by 40billion yuan. In 2001, among the total retail sales of social consumer goods, the wholesale and retail trade was 2551.08 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7%. Because there is no relevant statistical data at present, according to the fact that China's overall consumption growth rate in 2002 was lower than that in 2001, it is estimated that the wholesale and retail trade industry in 2002 increased by 10%, that is, in the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2002, the wholesale and retail trade industry was about 2800 billion yuan. After the outbreak of SARS, at the stage when the epidemic has not been fully controlled, people's fear is still quite strong. At least in the first quarter after the outbreak of SARS, most people will significantly reduce going out, and it is estimated that the number of shopping times of residents will be reduced by more than half. However, the reduction of shopping amount is much smaller, because the consumption of necessities will not be reduced, and the reduction is mainly non necessities, Some residents will postpone the consumption of durable consumer goods, and the number of shopping decreases, but the amount of shopping each time is increasing (shopping intensively to reduce the possibility of being infected by diseases). As% of China's household consumption is consumption of necessities, the wholesale and retail trade industry will decrease by about 30billion yuan in the second quarter according to a 20% reduction. It is estimated that the impact will be significantly weakened in the second quarter, with a total decrease of about 10billion yuan

the impact of SARS on the catering industry is also quite obvious, especially in Beijing and Guangdong provinces where the epidemic has reoccurred. The scale of the catering industry in 2001 was 436.889 billion yuan, an increase of 16.42% over the previous year. The average annual growth of the industry during the years was 16.6%. In 2002 and 2003, the average annual growth of 16% will reach 506.8 billion yuan and 588 billion yuan respectively. This industry will be the most affected by the "SARS" incident except tourism. It is estimated that there will be a decrease of at least 20% in the next three quarters, that is, a loss of nearly 90billion yuan. However, it should be noted that a considerable part of this loss has turned into an increase in household food consumption, and some losses have the problem of double counting with the tourism industry. Therefore, we believe that the direct loss of SARS to the catering industry is large, but the total economic loss is not very large, estimated at about 20billion yuan

transportation consumption will also decrease to some extent, but most of the decrease is included in tourism consumption. The reduction of people's consumption of urban public transport is quite obvious, which will be a heavy blow to public transport companies, but it is difficult to estimate because there is no reference statistical data. In addition, it should also be mentioned that the impact of the SARS event on consumption, and some are increased consumption or positive effects. For example, the physical quantity of agricultural products consumption may not increase, but the general rise in prices increases the amount of consumption; The consumption of drugs, medical devices, disinfection supplies, protective supplies and so on has increased significantly. Taken together, these factors are estimated to increase consumption by more than 20billion yuan. Therefore, in the final consumption, the total retail sales of social consumer goods will be reduced by more than 40 billion yuan, which is equivalent to an increase of 1 percentage point less this year

relatively speaking, the SARS incident has some impact on investment growth, but the intensity is limited. The impact is mainly in two aspects. First, due to the slowdown of construction, the investment progress will be delayed in the second quarter. Second, the sales of high-end residential and commercial real estate in real estate will be significantly affected, because the consumption of high-end residential and commercial real estate in Guangdong, Beijing and Shanghai has a great relationship with foreign businessmen, Hong Kong businessmen and Taiwan businessmen. Although the number of high-end export real estate in these regions is small, the sales volume basically accounts for 1/3 of the total national real estate sales, and these high-end real estate are heavily dependent on Hong Kong and Taiwan funds. More than half of the sales volume in Shanghai comes from Hong Kong and Taiwan merchants, and Shenzhen is more dependent. Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the current sales activities in these areas have basically stopped, which will have a significant impact on real estate investment. In general, except that real estate investment is significantly affected by the weakening sales of high-end residential and commercial real estate, other investments (including foreign investment) are mostly long-term and will not be significantly affected, but there is only a slight delay in time

external factors - the impact on trade is greater than that on foreign investment

the impact of SARS is not only domestic, but also global. This will have a certain impact on China's short-term foreign trade and foreign capital growth. The impact of SARS on foreign trade and foreign investment is roughly shown in the following aspects:

the impact on foreign trade will be greater than that on foreign investment. Although the "SARS" incident is only a sudden event, and the impact is mainly short-term, due to the poor stability of trade growth than investment growth, trade activities are relatively sensitive to the external environment and have relatively large fluctuations. Foreign capital inflows are different. In particular, China's foreign capital inflows are mainly long-term funds, and there is basically no short-term hot money. The scale and speed of foreign capital inflows mainly depend on foreign investors' confidence in China's long-term economic growth. After China's entry into the WTO, all kinds of multinational companies around the world are optimistic about China's market potential and development opportunities for a long time, have expanded their investment in China, and most of them regard investment in China as long-term strategic investment. Therefore, The pace of foreign investment may slow down due to the reduction of negotiation activities and the delay of investment and construction, but once the epidemic is basically controlled, it will recover soon

the impact of foreign trade will lag for a quarter or half a year, but will not form a long-term impact. The impact of SARS on China's foreign trade is obviously different from that on tourism, catering, commerce and aviation. At the same time, various experimental data processing software and experimental AIDS can be customized according to domestic and international standards provided by users. Its impact on current trade is not direct, with an obvious lag. It is estimated that the growth of foreign trade exports in the second quarter of this year will have some impact, but it will not be too large, because the current completed trade volume is affected by previous orders. However, the potential impact on trade will gradually appear:

on the one hand, the high-speed performance has also been improved, and the domestic foreign trade activities have been seriously hampered. The epidemic has led to the cancellation or postponement of some important international conferences and business activities held in China. The postponement of these meetings will not only cause some delegates to cancel their participation and ask for a refund, causing China to suffer some economic losses, but also make people doubt China's living and ecological environment, and then postpone or cancel more business activities, affecting the further development of China's foreign economic and foreign trade activities. In addition, the significant reduction of goods orders in the current period will have a great impact on the trade growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year, and this impact will be delayed until next year

on the other hand, China's economic activities abroad are quite limited. The impact of SARS on foreign trade exports will gradually appear from the second half of the year to the first half of next year. We estimate that the annual export growth will be less than 10%, down from the% growth we expected at the beginning of the year. On the one hand, it will lead to a deficit in foreign trade. On the other hand, it will have an indirect impact on the macro economy by weakening the external driving force of domestic investment and industrial growth

trade protectionism against China may take advantage of the SARS incident, which will have a certain impact on the medium and short-term growth of China's foreign trade. Because SARS is quite infectious, some countries may hinder the export of Chinese products by strengthening animal and plant health quarantine measures (SPS), technical barriers (TBT) and other measures; Other countries may create public opinion in the world to destroy Chinese goods in order to expand their market share. These obstacles and measures will be very effective in the short term. We should attach great importance to them and take necessary preventive measures

the impact on the tertiary industry is far greater than that on the primary and secondary industries

in terms of industry, the impact of SARS is mainly concentrated in the tertiary industry, including tourism, catering, aviation and other transportation industries, commerce, etc. The impact on the tertiary industry needs special attention in two aspects: first, some regions with relatively developed tertiary industries or strong dependence on tourism will be relatively hurt, and the state should adopt short-term preferential policies for these regions. For example, Beijing and Guangdong are not only the hardest hit areas of SARS, with great direct economic losses, but also their economic growth is highly dependent on the service industry. Therefore, the losses may be doubled, especially Beijing, an important tourist city in China, will be hit harder. Second, tourism, catering and commerce, which have suffered the most losses, are labor-intensive industries. The depression of these industries will undoubtedly aggravate the contradiction between urban and rural employment, especially will have a significant adverse impact on Farmers' income, because these industries

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